The deteriorating economic outlook, amplified by Donald Trump's trade war, risks increasing downward pressure on crude oil prices.This comes on top of the unexpected decision by OPEC+, which surprised analysts by confirming an increase in production after months of restrictions. The organization decided to increase its production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, a first since 2022. This increase, although modest, fuels fears of a gradual easing of production quotas, which could exacerbate the supply surplus and keep prices under pressure. Some observers believe that this decision also responds to political imperatives, particularly the pressure from the Trump administration to limit the rise in fuel prices.The US-China trade war is weighing heavily on global oil demand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand is expected to reach only 1 million barrels per day in 2025, down 100,000 barrels from initial forecasts. This decline is primarily caused by the deterioration of global economic prospects, exacerbated by trade tensions. Furthermore, OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April adds to the pressure on prices. This modest increase fuels fears of a gradual easing of production quotas, which could intensify the supply surplus and keep prices under pressure. Markets are reacting nervously to the Trump administration's trade policy decisions. The imposition of new tariffs disrupts international trade and threatens to weaken global growth, reducing energy needs. Currently, Brent crude is fluctuating around $71, after falling to its lowest level since 2021. Despite a technical rebound attempt, the trend remains broadly bearish. Trade tensions and global economic uncertainty continue to weaken oil demand, increasing market volatility

Christelle koambi